A World Cup Derby?

Right so today is April Fools day, but this is not a joke. FIFA have decided to keep the World Cup in Qatar and it will take place in November for the first time ever too. The exact dates are 21st November 2022- 18th December 2022.

I wish that was a joke, but it is fact instead and today the draw for the group stage took place with some interesting results that could lead to some brilliant games and a few old grudges being played out on the biggest stage of all. I say could because the draw has taken place, for the first time ever, before all of the 32 qualified teams are known. There are still 3 places to be filled in the World Cup roster and 8 teams who are still in the running to fill them. This has been factored into the draw and I come back to who they are and why their qualification has been delayed later on, but for now here are the groups.

Group A: Qatar, Ecuador, Senegal the Netherlands
Group B: ENGLAND, Iran, USA, Wales or Scotland or Ukraine
Group C: Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Poland
Group D: France, Peru or Australia or UAE, Denmark, Tunisia
Group E: Spain, Costa Rica or New Zealand, Germany, Japan
Group F: Belgium, Canada, Morocco, Croatia
Group G: Brazil, Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon
Group H: Portugal, Ghana, Uruguay, South Korea.

I will come back to Group A later because you read Group B right and I want to get straight on to talking about the possibility of England playing either Wales or Scotland for the first time ever at the World Cup.

England are not definite to have a derby against either of their Celtic neighbours just yet because those neighbours still have to win playoff matches in June to get to the World Cup first. That UEFA play-off path has been delayed from it’s original March finish date because of the current situation in Ukraine. Wales are already in the play-off final, as they attempt to reach their first World Cup since 1958, whilst Scotland have to win a semi-final against Ukraine to face Wales in that final in Cardiff, as they attempt to reach their first World Cup since 1998.

Whoever wins that play-off final will reach the World Cup and face England in their final group game. The prospect of a derby against either with both teams needed a result to qualify is mouth-watering, but particularly so in the case of Scotland qualifying as they have a deep-rooted hatred of England. Their meeting in the group stages at last summer’s Euro 2020 ended in a disappointing 0-0 draw and both teams would head into that match wanting to make up for that result against their local rivals. This possible showdown will take place on 29th November if it goes ahead.

The chances of such a match having anything riding on it for England is a true worst-case scenario though as they should already have amassed enough point from their first 2 games against Iran and the USA respectively. Neither team constitutes a true test for Southgate’s Men at their best and failure to collect all 3 points against either would signal a return to the dark days of 2010 and 2014 for a team that had reached at least the Semi-finals in each of their last 2 International tournaments.

The Iran-USA match will be hotly contested by 2 teams with no love for each other after decades of political tension between their governments over Iran’s nuclear programme. With it being the best chance for either team to collect a win I expect it to be a fiery match with many agricultural tackles flying in from both sides that will be settled by a single goal. The UEFA playoff qualifier for their part should sneak through the group in 2nd place behind a rampant England. If Wales make it into this group they even have the tools to win it if they can produce a shock against England. that is well within their capabilities with Aaron Ramsey, Gareth Bale and Harry Wilson (seriously underrated) in their squad.

The 2 teams that advance from Group B will face the 2 teams that advance from Group A and this will provide England’s first big test of the tournament. Group A includes the hosts Qatar, who will be group whipping boys at their first ever World Cup, Ecuador, Senegal and the Netherlands.

If Qatar are going to win a match at their first World Cup it is most likely to come against an Ecuador team that did a brilliant job of nabbing one of the 4 automatic Conmebol qualification spots. They will not make it out of the group though as the final 2 teams in the group are AFCON champions Senegal and constant World Cup threats the Netherlands.
Which of those 2 will win the group will be decided by their opening day clash on November 21st, whoever gets the better of their opponents in that match will go on to win the group and face the runners up of England’s group in the round of 16. The runners up will await England in that first knockout round.

Group C is Argentina’s for the taking as they fight off competition from both Mexico and Poland for the top spot. Saudi Arabia are the nailed-on whipping boys for this group as they failed to advance from a group including Russia, Uruguay and a Salah-less Egypt last time out, so the idea that they will advance against tougher competition this time is obvious nonsense. Poland and Mexico are likely to be fighting it out for 2nd place in the group and, like Group B before them, these rivals will face off for the upper hand in this battle on their first matchday (22nd November.

It will take a collapse of biblical proportions for Argentina to fail to advance from Group C and it is the same story for France in Group D. The French will once again face off against Denmark in this group stage and having beaten them to first place in the group stage last time out in 2018 they will be confident of doing so again. That previous meeting happened in that World Cup’s Group C and their group this time round will be almost a carbon copy of that one. The group was previously completed by both Peru and Australia, but this time only one will qualify as they are likely to face off in a Covid-delayed intercontinental play-off final in June if Australia win their Asian play-off against the UAE days earlier.

Peru beat Australia in their final group stage game last time out, but they both finished behind their group opponents in the last World Cup and with Denmark having improved massively since then I don’t see either making it out of the group once they qualify. I wouldn’t expect the UAE to beat France and Denmark to the qualification should they win their play-offs. Whoever wins that play-off can be expected to beat Tunisia in their match as the Africans have not performed well in their previous World Cup appearances, failing to make it out of a group with semi-finalists Belgium and England last time out.

Group E will be a nightmare group for whoever wins the OFC-Conmebol intercontinental playoff final. Neither New Zealand or Costa Rica will relish coming up against Spain, Germany and Japan if they qualify but they both have experience of getting results against more illustrious opponents in the group stage of a World Cup. Both of them did brilliantly in previous groups of death, with Costa Rica winning a group containing Uruguay, Italy and England in 2014 and New Zealand going unbeaten in 2010 despite coming up against both the experienced Paraguay and then Holders Italy.

I still expect neither to advance to the knockout round though as Germany are nailed-on to advance and Spain will battle with Japan for the second spot. If I had to make a bet on who will join Germany in advancing from the group I would go for Spain, but never underestimating their ability to choke at World Cup’s it is not beyond the realm of possibility for Japan to qualify either. Spain failed to make it out of their group in 2014 and with Germany’s failure to advance last time out in 2018 Japan will fancy their chances of springing a surprise in this one.

Group F features Canada appearing at their first World Cup since 1986 as they topped Concacaf qualification. They face last edition’s semi-finalists in Belgium and beaten finalists Croatia, which will make it hard for them to advance but in Morocco they have a team in their group that they should be able to collect a World Cup win against. For Morocco and Tunisia to make it to the World Cup from CAF qualification whilst Egypt and Nigeria both miss out is unfortunate as it greatly reduces the chances of us seeing the first ever African team in a World Cup semi-final.

I would not be surprised to see Canada join Belgium in advancing from this group, but it all depends on how they adapt to the heat and how much Croatia have improved from a disappointing showing at Euro 2020 last summer. They would be most likely to face Germany in the round of 16 though so that is probably as far as they will go even at their peak performance.

Group G is one of the more difficult ones to call from the draw as it includes the excellent Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia and Cameroon. Switzerland are excellent defensively and now have some decent options going forward too, whilst Serbia can call on the services of Aleksandar Mitrović to fire in the goals for them. Brazil’s World Cup pedigree is well known, whilst Cameroon have a history of getting results when they need them (most notably on a run to the 1990 quarter-finals). If I had to pick 2 to advance it would be Brazil and Switzerland because they have been most adept as managing it before, but counting out either Serbia or Cameroon at this point would be a mistake.

In Group H we are treated to the silky skills of Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes for Portugal, the wild cards who made a deep run when hosting in 2002 in South Korea, and a rematch of the 2010 Quarter-final between Ghana and Uruguay. We all know that Ghana were the better team on that day, but they weren’t the ones who won the match so they will head into the rematch on 2nd December with a score to settle. We could be treated to another grandstand finish if they both head into that final game of the group with something to play for.

Portugal would be the obvious choice to advance as group winners, but they stumbled in UEFA qualifying and only made it to the World Cup thanks to a play-off victory against North Macedonia so perhaps they are not the force they once were. Add to that the struggles they had in the group stage last time out, they only beat Morocco and were held to draws by Spain and Iran, and the other teams in the group may go into games against them fancying their chances of getting a result. I would still back them to advance and South Korea would be my pick to join them as both Ghana and Uruguay have headed downhill since that excellent match in 2010.

England’s route to the final becomes a lot harder after the group stage, with AFCON champions Senegal, holders France and Belgium, who beat us twice at the last World Cup, all probable opponents on the run to the final in Doha on 18th December. Put nothing past Southgate’s team though as they now have experience of what it takes to make a deep run in these tournaments. The main thing working against them as they look to win the title for the first time since 1966 will be the heat that is expected to reach highs of 30degrees centigrade. The air-conditioning systems in the stadium may alleviate the pain of this a little, but the heat will still favour the South-American teams who have more experience of playing in such temperatures and for this reason Brazil are my favourites to lift the trophy.

The heat should also improve the African teams chances of going far in the tournament and make Senegal a real threat to everyone they play. They are AFCON champions and had to defeat the excellent Egyptian team in that final as well as in the final games to secure qualification to the World Cup. In both of those matches they gained valuable experience in 3 areas that will be key to advancing at the World Cup.

First they learnt how to get a result against a team that takes the game to them and asks question of them on the defence as well as the offense. Secondly they learnt how to grind out results in extremely pressurised knock-out situations, which they will need to do to a make a deep run at the World Cup. Lastly but by no means least, as I’m sure all England fans can attest, they gained vital experience of winning penalty shoot-outs. This last skill was one that evaded England for so long and I’m sure Senegal will be happy to avoid that particular humiliation.

The Taranga Lions represent Africa’s best chance of finally securing a long overdue World Cup semi-final representative and I would love to see it, provided it doesn’t come at England’s expense of course. Despite the controversies surround the World Cup being hosting in Qatar I am looking forward to watching it and with the chances of England finally breaking their losing streak, a potential England-Wales/Scotland derby, Canada making a return after 36 years away and Senegal representing Africa’s best chance of a Semi-finalist at long last, I hope you’re looking forward to it too.

Normal blogging service will be resumed next-week as I bring you the tale of my experiences watching Brentford take on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge tomorrow.