The Final Day Awaits

Right, so the final day of the Premier League season is just 2 days away and I’m here to break down exactly what’s on the line at both ends of the table. Let’s start down at the bottom where the equation is far simpler than at the top.

Norwich and Watford are already condemned to spend next season in the Championship and have been for some time, but the question of who will finish bottom of the table remains unanswered. The Canaries will start the final day on 22points, with the Hornets just a point ahead of them on 23.

Theoretically this should mean that all Norwich have to do to avoid finishing in 20th is get a better result at home to Tottenham than Watford can manage away at Stamford Bridge, but it’s not quite that simple. Their goal difference, an abysmal -56, is so much worse than Watford’s, a still abysmal -42, that only a win will do for them. Any other result on their final home Premier League game, for at least 15 months, will mean that Watford can sneak 19th place even when they lose at Stamford Bridge.

That goal difference disparity is not down to the Norwich defence being far leakier than Watford’s as they had conceded 79 goals compared to 75 for the Hornets. The difference is solely down to the East Anglian’s inability to put the ball in the net. A return of just 23 goals from 37 games is abominable and 10 worse than the next worst record of 33 goals, shared by Watford and Burnley. Though an explanation of their profligacy is not easy to ascertain as, in Teemu Pukki they have a player with a proven record of scoring huge amounts of goals in previous seasons. The lack of back-up scorers around him has perhaps been their downfall and if they want to avoid becoming the new yo-yo team then brining in fellow finishers to support their talisman may be the way to go.

For the record I have absolutely no faith that either of teams will get any points on the final day as they are both facing teams starting the day in the top 4. Chelsea will have the home advantage on their side and Tottenham still need points to secure 4th place, more on this later. So I don’t see either London team suffering a shock result against the standout whipping boys of the league this season.

The true drama at the bottom is in the face-off between Leeds and Burnley to avoid joining those dropping through the trap door. They start the day level on points and so whoever gets the better result on the final day will stay up. The biggest curveball is what happens if both of them secure the same result on the final day. If Burnley lose against the newly minted Newcastle and Leeds are unable to squeeze anything out of their final day visit to a Bee’s team in electric late season form, who goes down then?

The simple answer to that is Leeds United. Their goal difference of -38 is so much worse than the Clarets (-18) means that all Burnley have to do is match their result against a flying Brentford team to send them down. Second season syndrome is a hugely over cliched concept, but it seems that Leeds may be the latest victims of it.

The job of securing their survival has been made harder for Leeds by the fact they are finishing up by travelling to a Brentford team in electric form, taking 16 points in their last 7 games. Not the opposition they would have chosen when they desperately need to clinch their first win since a 3-0 win away from home against a Watford side that was already spiralling down the relegation plug hole.

One nugget of hope for the men from Yorkshire is that Burnley will be facing the new superpower from Tyneside that has powered themselves away from the relegation fight since their injection of Saudi cash in January. Newcastle are that team and they have had an excellent second half of the season. They will be looking to finish their season on a high, with a top half finish still possible, to ensure they can attract the best players possible for their push to create a football dynasty from next season.

Burnley will also have to face this final day juggernaut without a suspended Matt Lowton available to feature in their defence after he picked up a straight red card in the 91st minute of their Thursday evening draw at Aston Villa on Thursday. They are expected to be able to welcome James Tarkowski back into their back line though and the best news of all for the Clarets is that they have their fate in their own hand going into a home match on the final day.

If you had offered that deal to Clarets fans at the start of the season I don’t doubt they would have taken it and it’s certainly far better than the spot Leeds fans find themselves in. Having to rely on your opponents dropping points at home as well as needing to beat an in-form team on their own patch on the final day to stay up is not a position any team would want to find themselves in and one I don’t believe they will find their way out of.

Burnley always seem to find a way to stay up and I think they will again this season. Leeds will join Watford and Norwich in dropping down to the championship for next season, with Fulham and Bournemouth already guaranteed to be coming the other way.

Now that we have the scenarios at the bottom all ironed out, lets shift our attention up to the top 7 teams where we have two showdowns for European Qualification and the epic title fight to straighten out.

The teams that will qualify for Europe are all locked in going into the final day, but who qualifies for which competition is where the unknowns rear their ugly heads. The showdown between Manchester United and West Ham United will see the winner qualify for the Europa League next season, with the loser consigned to the Europa Conference League.

Man U are the team in the box seat in this fight for 6th place, holding a 2 point lead over the Hammers. A point away at Selhurst Park will not be enough for them to hold this position if the Hammers can crush the Seagulls on the south coast and once again it’s goal difference that provides the wrinkle in the plan. The Red Devil’s goal difference of just +1 pales into insignificance next to the +11 that the Hammer’s possess. As such anything but a win against Viera’s wounded Eagles, who will be looking to show their home support that they are not limping over the line after throwing away a 2-0 half time lead at Goodison Park on Thursday.

That comeback secured the Toffees survival for another season and congratulations to them for that, but it was unfortunate for Man U as it gives Palace something to fight for on the final day. Any slip up from the North-Westerners on their trip to London will give the Hammers the chance to leapfrog them in the table and secure the Europa League spot for next season with a win on the South Coast.

Their fate is out of their hands though and with Brighton having beaten Man United 4-0 at home two weeks ago they have shown they can produce big results in front of their home fans. The Seagulls will not be completely on the beach themselves either as they need a win to secure a top 10 finish. That may not sound like a huge incentive for a team to give it their all and I don’t feel it will be enough for Brighton to get anything out a Hammers team with the momentum of a draw against the imperious Manchester City behind them coming into this one.

If Hammers do get the win then whether or not it is enough to grab that Europa League place rests on which Man U team turn up at Selhurst Park. Given how inconsistent Man U have been this season I am expecting them to lose to their match and a Hammer’s win to secure the Londoners that coveted Europa League qualification place.

In the next battle on the cards for the final day the Europa League place is the consolation prize, with the Champions League qualification place what is now coveted. The teams going for this gravy train position are the teams of the intense North London derby, Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur.

Spurs are the ones with the upper-hand in this particular derby fight because, as noted previously, they play bottom of the table Norwich on the final day. Furthermore, they currently hold a 2 point advantage over their deadly rivals and they hold the goal difference advantage over them by +24 to +9. All of this means that they don’t even need to win at Carrow Road to secure the Champions League spot. Baring a shock of truly seismic proportions thought Spurs will win this one and turn the match at the Emirates into a dead rubber.

Arsenal’s opponents at that match at the Emirates are an Everton team fresh off the joy of an incredible second half comeback on Thursday that secured their top flight status for next season. This brilliant win will have given the Toffee’s a boat load of momentum to take into the final day and even though they no longer need to win this one the joy that must be filling their souls after that result may push them over the line here. The Gunners will hope that the Toffees return to type instead and turn in one of the atrocious away performances that have plagued their long road to survival.

From my perspective though the match at the Emirates will count for nothing because I don’t see any scenario where Spurs screw up against Norwich and open the door to Arsenal. I fully expect that Spurs will qualify for the Champions League at the expense of Arsenal and steal the joy of celebrating St. Totteringham’s day away from their rivals.

There is no doubt where the biggest story of the final day lies though and that is in the title fight as Jurgen Klopp’s incredible Liverpool side attempt to pull off the impossible Quadruple. To win all four of the biggest competitions open to English teams would be an unprecedented feat, but if anyone can win it this Liverpool team are the ones who might. The team standing in their way are domestic powerhouses, Manchester City.

Back in January Liverpool were 14 points behind their title rivals in the table, but with every week that has passed their insane run of form, going unbeaten in the 5 months since, has seen them close the gap to just a single point going into the final day. Their swing at the title appeared to have slipped through their fingers 2 Saturdays ago, 7th May, when they were held to a home draw by Spurs only to be kept at their fingertips by Man City failing to complete their second half comeback at the London Stadium and having to settle for just a draw.

Liverpool will be hoping that Mahrez missing an 86th minute penalty that would’ve won the game and the title for City is an omen of what is to come on Sunday. City will be confident of getting the win they need to secure the title though, as they will have the vociferous backing of the partisan home support on Sunday against an Aston Villa team that had to fight till the final second to carve a draw from their match against relegation-threatened Burnley on Thursday evening.

Their draw against West Ham last Sunday does simplify the equation for City though as it leaves them with the knowledge that their fate is in their own hands, win against Villa and the title is theirs. Liverpool fans will know that all they can really count on is the Reds beating Wolves at Anfield on the final day, but they will be keeping an eye on proceedings at the Etihad and will be looking for a favour from a club legend.

Steven Gerrard is the Aston Villa manager as they travel to the Etihad for this crucial day in history. With many Liverpool fans confident of their chances in the Champions League final next weekend the Premier League title missing link in the Quadruple and having your ex-captain, the man who carried your team on his back for many years, in the dugout against the team you need to drop points on the final day can only be a good thing from their point of view.

Their will also be a Oil Tanker’s worth of personal motivation for Stevie G to get something out of this match. He was part of the Liverpool team that missed out on the league title by 2 points to Man City in 2013/14 and, in a fair few people’s short sighted eyes, his slip against Chelsea is seen as the main reason why that title challenge failed. So to have all that emotional weight resting on the result of that title fight having crushed his soul for the past 8 years, now having the chance to expunge that trauma from his soul is an opportunity that, many Liverpool fans will hope, is too good to let slip through his fingers.

Whilst Manchester City are the obvious call to win the title, as any team that has it in their own hands on the final day at home to a team that played their last game just 72 hours ago should be. I can’t deny that I would love to see Stevie G’s Villa get something from the match whilst Liverpool skittle through a Wolves team that is limping over the line and for Liverpool to win the title and the Quadruple.

The euphoria that I would feel at that fairy-tale sequence of events would be utterly undeniable but with my logical hat on and looking at what is realistic I can’t see City messing it up on the final day in front of their own fans. I hope with all my heart and soul that I am proved wrong on this, my words here proving to be a curse on City, but I predict that Manchester City will win their game and the title decapitating Liverpool’s dreams of immortality just one match short of the finish.

Liverpool may have to make do with just the 3 trophies for their Victory Parade through town and right past my front door on Sunday 29th May. Though the fact that winning 3 trophies would be seen as a disappointment shows just how incredible this current Liverpool team are. They are written into history no matter how things go for them on Sunday but they have the chance to own football history if things all go their way and I for one want to see that come to pass.